Structural prognosis: What everyone should know!

Hoffman Paul C.

Abstract:
Prognosis from a structural engineering perspective is a probabilistic statement with respect to the reliability of structural integrity as a function of time whether measured in terms of flight hours or load cycles. The prediction of the end of service life and the attendant scatter in the prediction is the ultimate prognostic challenge. Today, the prognostic challenge has us asking the question of what is it we should know to be able to predict within an acceptable confidence. By addressing legacy aircraft management one gains insight as to what knowledge is available and what is needed. In viewing aging aircraft problems we can get a clear vision of what it is that prognosis should consist and what it is prognosis should answer. In other words we need to know what it is we are trying to answer via prognosis. Concurrently we will know what construct prognosis should take.

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