Determination of failure probability distributions of complex systems based on FMEA assessment

Pickard K., Bertsche B.

Abstract:
In modern product design cycles the development times are getting shorter whereas the requirements increase. To counteract quality and reliability problems different quality methods were integrated into the product design cycle, e.g. FMEA, etc.. Yet, in order to achieve a lifetime prediction or prognosis on the product reliability several tests still have to be carried out. The problem is, however, that these tests often take place in later design stages. To avoid such late lifetime predictions, a procedure is presented, that enables a lifetime prediction based on FMEA assessment values. Therefore the FMEA assessment values are transferred in input data for a two parametric Weibull distribution. With this distribution a description of the component and system failure behaviour can be made. The possible potentials will be shown with the help of an example and a comparison with real field data will be done. The procedure has been applied in several projects in automotive industry. The performance of the prognosis has been verified by real field data and has shown respectable results.

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